The timing of our year long international adventure is fragile. There are many reasons which I’ll cover later that point to this one year window as our only chance to pull this off. The fragility of this window drives us full steam ahead to seize this opportunity for an amazing adventure. We realize very clearly that we are fortunate to have this opportunity within our grasp. However, that’s not to say ALL of the stars have aligned on this plan. It may lead to career suicide.
For my entire 25 year career I have worked in tech as a software engineer and architect. Those of us working in that field are used to a certain kind of consistent change. For the most part the change was limited to moves between different languages, different platforms, and different hosting technologies (e.g. cloud). It had a stable feeling though, where from one year to the next there would be a demand for our skills at some company. There’s a different feeling now.
Leaving my job is supposed to be the easiest part of this gap year. I have pictured this moment for years as we pursued financial independence. In those fantasy pictures in my mind, I enthusiastically give notice at work. I shed mundane audits, security requirements, meetings, incidents, etc. The persistent stress of managing a system that a large corporation relies on, gone. The acute stress of major system conversions where any of a thousand things can go wrong, no more. It’s supposed to be the ultimate stress relieving spike the football moment. That’s not exactly how I feel though.
Career Suicide
Quitting a job is one thing, committing career suicide is another. From my front row seat to the impacts of artificial intelligence on the tech world, I realize I am committing career suicide.
Software development over the last 30 years has been a borrowed code experience to some extent. Solving code problems typically involved a search to see if a similar solution exists, then adapting that similar solution to the problem at hand. Writing original code was done as well, but it was far from the creative and clever profession an outsider might picture. Nonetheless, skilled developers are important during this time, requiring a lot of man-power. That in turn lead to a lot of demand for developers and drove up wages.
AI Transition
The difference in the past few years has not been gradual. During that time I went from writing or crafting (borrowing) most of my own code, to looking at fellow developers sideways if they produce code with their human brain and hands. Why would anyone spend a few hours writing, debugging, and testing a PowerShell script when copilot produces it instantly? They shouldn’t, and the company shouldn’t be paying for that either. In these last few years my team lost 7 developers through attrition and layoffs. There are just 4 of us remaining. Productivity has not dipped at all following that, in large part due to AI picking up the slack. This trend will no doubt continue, leading to fewer tech positions accomplishing the same objectives.
Take tech out of it and think of it a different way. If you are a carpenter and quitting your job means you will never do carpentry again, would you think twice? Maybe squeeze out the last few years of that good carpentry pay? While it won’t be impossible to return to tech, it will be impossible to return to tech as I know it. Even tech as I knew it a few years ago no longer exists. Quitting my job really means losing out on the opportunity to survive and advance into the new normal. It means missing out on snagging a progressively more rare position that wields the power of AI to do the work of a fleet of traditional developers.
Where to go from here
The future is impossible to predict. There could ultimately be more and more software products built leading to increased demand for engineers despite AI productivity. That would make returning to work a non-issue. On the flip-side, no tech worker demand means wages may become undesirably low. Again, a non-issue because I’m not missing out on anything. Ultimately my mindset is that the window for our international gap year is more fragile and more important than my career. I can figure out what to do with the rest of my life, but we won’t get this year back. Making decisions today based on fearful predictions of tomorrow is a recipe for regret.